Forty-three weeks from today, we will go to our voting precincts and select the next President of the United States. Over the course of these 43 weeks, we will be inundated with polls, talk shows, advertisements and the opinions of the professional pundits and new-media bloggers.
For a casual observer like me, with an engineering degree instead of a political science or law school sheepskin, the deluge of information can be simplified down to an easy, straightforward fact: the next President will need to collect 270 electoral votes to win.
In 2008, John McCain lost to Barack Obama by a margin of 173 to 365. McCain won 22 states, while Obama won 28, plus the District of Columbia (and one of Nebraska's five electors based on their proportional distribution system).
The census of 2010 changed the electoral vote allotment for 18 states, due to population growth in the South, coupled with reductions in the Northeast and upper Midwest. A starting point for a prediction of the 2012 election would be to assume that the eventual Republican nominee would win the same 22 states that McCain won in 2008, and Obama would win the rest, using the new electoral vote math in place after the census reallotment.
Unfortunately, this starting point prediction yields a second term for Obama, with a 359 to 179 electoral victory. Therefore, the Republican nominee needs to find at least 91 electoral votes that will flip from Obama to the GOP, without losing any of McCain's states from 2008, in order to win.
I have identified eight states, in order of increasing difficulty, which I think can flip from Democrat-to-Republican and send Obama to the unemployment line.
1. Nebraska – flip 1 electoral vote from Obama to Republican
Besides the six electoral votes that we picked up in census reallotment, this should be the easiest of the electoral votes to flip over to the GOP. In the last ten presidential elections, Nebraska awarded 49 out of a possible 50 electoral votes to the Republican candidate. In 2008, McCain beat Obama by 14.9% in Nebraska. Furthermore, in the 2010 midterm House elections, 67.5% of Nebraskans voted Republican, and all three districts were won by the GOP. The only states with a higher percentage of Republican voters in the 2010 midterm House elections were Wyoming and Alaska.
District
| Name |
Party
|
R
|
D
|
Other
|
1
| Fortenberry, Jeff |
R
|
116,871
|
47,106
|
0
|
2
| Terry, Lee |
R
|
93,840
|
60,486
|
0
|
3
| Smith, Adrian |
R
|
117,275
|
29,932
|
20,036
|
327,986
|
137,524
|
20,036
| |||
Table: Nebraska 2010 midterm results
2. Florida – flip 29 electoral votes from Obama to Republican
My home state has voted for the Democrat in three of the last ten elections – Jimmy Carter in 1976, Bill Clinton in 1996, and Obama in 2008. In all but one of those ten elections, Florida has also sided with the election winner (they incorrectly picked George H.W. Bush in 1992). It's very hard to see Obama losing in 2012 if he can win Florida's electoral votes again. Fortunately, Florida voted very strongly for Republicans in the 2010 midterm House elections, with over 3 million people voting for the GOP and only 1.8 million voting for Democrats, while winning 19 out of 25 districts. The actual Republican/Democrat preference would be skewed even further than above had anyone opposed Republican Mario Diaz-Balart in District 21. In 2008, Obama beat McCain by 2.8% in Florida, but there is reason for optimism.
District
| Name |
Party
|
R
|
D
|
Other
|
1
| Miller, Jeff |
R
|
170,821
|
0
|
42,705
|
2
| Southerland, Steve |
R
|
136,371
|
105,211
|
12,856
|
3
| Brown, Corrine |
D
|
50,932
|
94,744
|
4,625
|
4
| Crenshaw, Ander |
R
|
178,238
|
0
|
52,607
|
5
| Nugent, Richard |
R
|
208,815
|
100,858
|
0
|
6
| Stearns, Cliff |
R
|
179,349
|
0
|
71,632
|
7
| Mica, John |
R
|
185,470
|
83,206
|
0
|
8
| Webster, Daniel |
R
|
123,586
|
84,167
|
12,491
|
9
| Bilirakis, Gus M. |
R
|
165,433
|
66,158
|
0
|
10
| Young, C.W. Bill |
R
|
137,943
|
71,313
|
0
|
11
| Castor, Kathy |
D
|
61,817
|
91,328
|
0
|
12
| Ross, Dennis |
R
|
102,704
|
87,769
|
22,857
|
13
| Buchanan, Vern |
R
|
183,811
|
83,123
|
0
|
14
| Mack, Connie |
R
|
188,341
|
74,525
|
11,825
|
15
| Posey, Bill |
R
|
157,079
|
85,595
|
0
|
16
| Rooney, Tom |
R
|
162,285
|
80,327
|
151
|
17
| Wilson, Frederica |
D
|
0
|
106,361
|
17,009
|
18
| Ros-Lehtinen, Ileana |
R
|
102,360
|
46,235
|
0
|
19
| Deutch, Ted |
D
|
132,098
|
78,733
|
228
|
20
| Wasserman Schultz, Debbie |
D
|
63,845
|
100,787
|
2,938
|
21
| Diaz-Balart, Mario (unopposed) |
R
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
22
| West, Allen |
R
|
118,890
|
99,804
|
0
|
23
| Hastings, Alcee L. |
D
|
26,414
|
100,066
|
0
|
24
| Adams, Sandy |
R
|
146,129
|
98,787
|
115
|
25
| Rivera, David |
R
|
74,859
|
61,138
|
7,556
|
3,057,590
|
1,800,235
|
259,595
| |||
Table: Florida 2010 midterm results
3. Indiana – flip 11 electoral votes from Obama to Republican
For nine straight elections, from 1972 through 2004, Indiana picked the GOP presidential candidate over the Democrat. That streak was broken in 2008 when they chose Obama (Obama beat McCain by 1.0%). Based on the results of the 2010 midterm House elections, it appears that Indiana voters regret that decision, since six out of nine districts were won by Republicans, and the overall voting margin in the state was 55.6% to 38.9% in favor of the GOP.
District
| Name |
Party
|
R
|
D
|
Other
|
1
| Visclosky, Peter |
D
|
65,558
|
99,387
|
4,762
|
2
| Donnelly, Joe |
D
|
88,803
|
91,341
|
9,447
|
3
| Stutzman, Marlin |
R
|
116,140
|
61,267
|
7,642
|
4
| Rokita, Todd |
R
|
138,732
|
53,167
|
10,423
|
5
| Burton, Dan |
R
|
146,899
|
60,024
|
29,484
|
6
| Pence, Mike |
R
|
126,027
|
56,647
|
6,635
|
7
| Carson, André |
D
|
55,213
|
86,011
|
4,815
|
8
| Bucshon, Larry |
R
|
116,759
|
76,265
|
10,240
|
9
| Young, Todd |
R
|
118,040
|
95,353
|
12,139
|
972,171
|
679,462
|
95,587
| |||
Table: Indiana 2010 midterm results
4. Virginia – flip 13 electoral votes from Obama to Republican
Just like Indiana, Virginia also picked the GOP candidate over the Democrat from 1972 to 2004, before choosing Obama in the last cycle (Obama beat McCain by 6.3%). Also like Indiana, Virginians seemed to lament their change of heart in 2008, as Republicans defeated Democrats by a 54.2% to 41.6% margin in the 2010 midterm House elections, winning eight out of eleven districts.
District
| Name |
Party
|
R
|
D
|
Other
|
1
| Wittman, Robert J. |
R
|
135,564
|
73,824
|
2,848
|
2
| Rigell, Scott |
R
|
88,340
|
70,591
|
7,358
|
3
| Scott, Robert C. |
D
|
44,553
|
114,754
|
4,593
|
4
| Forbes, J. Randy |
R
|
123,659
|
74,298
|
432
|
5
| Hurt, Robert |
R
|
119,560
|
110,562
|
5,177
|
6
| Goodlatte, Bob |
R
|
127,487
|
0
|
39,667
|
7
| Cantor, Eric |
R
|
138,209
|
79,616
|
15,577
|
8
| Moran, James |
D
|
71,145
|
116,404
|
3,199
|
9
| Griffith, Morgan |
R
|
95,726
|
86,743
|
4,448
|
10
| Wolf, Frank |
R
|
131,116
|
72,604
|
4,836
|
11
| Connolly, Gerald E. "Gerry" |
D
|
110,739
|
111,720
|
4,492
|
1,186,098
|
911,116
|
92,627
| |||
Table: Virginia 2010 midterm results
5. Ohio – flip 18 electoral votes from Obama to Republican
Whoever has won Ohio's electoral votes in the last ten elections has won the presidency – six Republicans and four Democrats. In 2008, Obama beat McCain by 4.5% in Ohio. This year, because of the results of the referendum against the Obama administration two years ago, I believe that Ohio can flip to the GOP. That referendum in the 2010 midterm House elections yielded thirteen Republican representatives with 53.7% of the statewide total vote, compared to five Democrat representatives and only 42.1% of the total voters.
District
| Name |
Party
|
R
|
D
|
Other
|
1
| Chabot, Steve |
R
|
103,770
|
92,672
|
5,076
|
2
| Schmidt, Jean |
R
|
139,027
|
82,431
|
16,387
|
3
| Turner, Michael |
R
|
152,629
|
71,455
|
0
|
4
| Jordan, Jim |
R
|
146,029
|
50,533
|
7,708
|
5
| Latta, Robert E. |
R
|
140,703
|
54,919
|
11,831
|
6
| Johnson, Bill |
R
|
103,170
|
92,823
|
9,582
|
7
| Austria, Steve |
R
|
135,721
|
70,400
|
12,192
|
8
| Boehner, John A. |
R
|
142,731
|
65,883
|
8,822
|
9
| Kaptur, Marcy |
D
|
83,423
|
121,819
|
0
|
10
| Kucinich, Dennis J. |
D
|
83,809
|
101,343
|
5,874
|
11
| Fudge, Marcia L. |
D
|
28,754
|
139,693
|
0
|
12
| Tiberi, Pat |
R
|
150,163
|
110,307
|
8,710
|
13
| Sutton, Betty |
D
|
94,367
|
118,806
|
0
|
14
| LaTourette, Steven C. |
R
|
149,878
|
72,604
|
8,383
|
15
| Stivers, Steve |
R
|
119,471
|
91,077
|
10,048
|
16
| Renacci, Jim |
R
|
114,652
|
90,833
|
14,652
|
17
| Ryan, Tim |
D
|
57,352
|
102,758
|
30,556
|
18
| Gibbs, Bob |
R
|
107,426
|
80,756
|
11,266
|
2,053,075
|
1,611,112
|
161,087
| |||
Table: Ohio 2010 midterm results
6. North Carolina – flip 15 electoral votes from Obama to Republican
Although North Carolina had voted for the Republican presidential candidate in seven straight elections prior to 2008, they chose Obama and turned the state blue for the first time since Carter in 1976 (Obama beat McCain by 0.3%). Like Iowa, Republicans did not win a majority of North Carolina's House seats in the 2010 midterm elections (seven out of thirteen were won by Democrats), but the GOP did collect more votes in the state overall, by a 54.1% to 45.2% margin.
District
| Name |
Party
|
R
|
D
|
Other
|
1
| Butterfield, G.K. |
D
|
70,867
|
103,294
|
0
|
2
| Ellmers, Renee |
R
|
93,876
|
92,393
|
3,505
|
3
| Jones, Walter B. |
R
|
143,225
|
51,317
|
4,762
|
4
| Price, David |
D
|
116,448
|
155,384
|
0
|
5
| Foxx, Virginia |
R
|
140,525
|
72,762
|
0
|
6
| Coble, Howard |
R
|
156,252
|
51,507
|
0
|
7
| McIntyre, Mike |
D
|
98,328
|
113,957
|
0
|
8
| Kissell, Larry |
D
|
73,129
|
88,776
|
5,537
|
9
| Myrick, Sue |
R
|
158,790
|
71,450
|
0
|
10
| McHenry, Patrick T. |
R
|
130,813
|
52,972
|
0
|
11
| Shuler, Heath |
D
|
110,246
|
131,225
|
0
|
12
| Watt, Mel |
D
|
55,315
|
103,495
|
3,197
|
13
| Miller, Brad |
D
|
93,099
|
116,103
|
0
|
1,440,913
|
1,204,635
|
17,001
| |||
Table: North Carolina 2010 midterm results
7. Wisconsin – flip 10 electoral votes from Obama to Republican
Considering that the Democrat has won Wisconsin in the last six presidential elections, and only two Republicans have won this state in the previous ten contests (Richard Nixon in 1972, and Ronald Reagan in 1980 and 1984), it may be overly optimistic to think that Wisconsin will flip to the GOP. In 2008, Obama beat McCain by 13.9% in Wisconsin. However, in the 2010 midterm elections, Republicans won five out of eight House seats, and the overall statewide vote was 54.5% to 43.9% in favor of the GOP, so there may be reason to be hopeful.
District
| Name |
Party
|
R
|
D
|
Other
|
1
| Ryan, Paul |
R
|
179,819
|
79,363
|
4,445
|
2
| Baldwin, Tammy |
D
|
118,099
|
191,164
|
197
|
3
| Kind, Ron |
D
|
116,838
|
126,380
|
8,122
|
4
| Moore, Gwen |
D
|
61,543
|
143,559
|
3,001
|
5
| Sensenbrenner, F. James |
R
|
229,642
|
90,634
|
10,982
|
6
| Petri, Thomas |
R
|
183,271
|
75,926
|
170
|
7
| Duffy, Sean P. |
R
|
132,551
|
113,018
|
8,820
|
8
| Ribble, Reid |
R
|
143,998
|
118,646
|
294
|
1,165,761
|
938,690
|
36,031
| |||
Table: Wisconsin 2010 midterm results
8. Iowa – flip 6 electoral votes from Obama to Republican
From 1972-1984, Iowa voted for the Republican candidate in all four elections. Then, from 1988-2000, they voted for the Democrat. In the last two elections, they have flip-flopped to George W. Bush and then back to Obama as he beat McCain by 9.5%. Despite all of this indecisiveness, there is evidence that Iowa will flip back to the GOP in 2012; although Republicans only won two of Iowa's five House districts in 2010, 54.0% of the state voted for a Republican candidate but only 43.4% voted for a Democrat.
District
| Name |
Party
|
R
|
D
|
Other
|
1
| Braley, Bruce L. |
D
|
100,219
|
104,428
|
6,255
|
2
| Loebsack, David |
D
|
104,319
|
115,839
|
7,017
|
3
| Boswell, Leonard |
D
|
111,925
|
122,147
|
6,684
|
4
| Latham, Tom |
R
|
152,588
|
74,300
|
5,631
|
5
| King, Steve |
R
|
128,363
|
63,160
|
3,716
|
597,414
|
479,874
|
29,303
| |||
Table: Iowa 2010 midterm results
Potential risks for Republican nominee:
- Missouri
- 10 electoral votes
- McCain won Missouri by 0.1% in 2008
- Voted for Republican in seven of last ten elections, including last three contests
- 20.6% Republican advantage in 2010 midterms
- Montana
- 3 electoral votes
- McCain won Montana by 2.3% in 2008
- Voted for Republican in nine of last ten elections
- 26.6% Republican advantage in 2010 midterms
- Georgia
- 16 electoral votes
- McCain won Georgia by 5.2% in 2008
- Voted for Republican in seven of last ten elections, including last four contests
- 23.8% Republican advantage in 2010 midterms
Opportunities for Republican nominee:
- Colorado
- 9 electoral votes
- Obama won Colorado by 9.0% in 2008
- Voted for Republican in eight of last ten elections
- 4.6% Republican advantage in 2010 midterms
- New Hampshire
- 4 electoral votes
- Obama won New Hampshire by 9.6% in 2008
- Voted for Republican in six of last ten elections, but only one of the last five contests (Bush in 2000)
- 6.6% Republican advantage in 2010 midterms
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