The Intransigent Conservative

Sunday, February 3, 2013

Weekend Potpourri

View the story "Weekend Potpourri (2/2/13-2/3/13)" on StorifyWeekend Potpourri (2/2/13-2/3/13)http://theintransigentconservative.blogspot.comStorified by Brian Empric· Sun, Feb 03 2013 17:23:44Daniel P. Kessler (senior fellow at the Hoover Institution) writes that every one of the main claims made for ObamaCare is turning out to be false. The law was sold by liberal Democrats on four grounds – lower health-care costs, smaller deficits, preservation of existing insurance, and increased productivity. All of these justifications have “become increasingly implausible.”

“In analyses conducted for the states of Wisconsin, Minnesota and Colorado, Jonathan Gruber of MIT forecasts that premiums in the non-group market will rise by 19% to 30% due to the law. Other estimates are even higher. The actuarial firm Milliman predicts that non-group premiums in Ohio will rise by 55%-85%. Maine, Oregon and Nevada have sponsored their own studies, all of which reach essentially the same conclusion.”

“Put aside the absurdity that savings from Medicare—the country's largest unfunded liability—can be used to finance a new entitlement. The argument that health reform decreases the deficit is even worse. It depends on Congress and the president not only imposing Medicare cuts that they have proven unwilling to make but also imposing cuts that they have already specifically undone, most notably to Medicare Advantage, a program that helps millions of seniors pay for private health plans.”

“Indeed, disruption of people's existing insurance is one of the law's stated goals. On one hand, the law seeks to increase the generosity of policies that it deems too stingy, by limiting deductibles and mandating coverage that the secretary of Health and Human Services thinks is ‘essential,’ whether or not the policyholder can afford it. On the other hand, the law seeks to reduce the generosity of policies that it deems too extravagant, by imposing the ‘Cadillac tax’ on costly insurance plans.”

“That's just the intended consequences. One of the law's unintended consequences is that some employers will drop coverage in response to new regulations and the availability of subsidized insurance in the new exchanges. How many is anybody's guess.”Daniel Kessler: ObamaCare's Broken Promises http://on.wsj.com/11bCaVgOpinion & CommentaryJoel Kotkin writes that the old Confederacy’s long-term economic prospects shine bright, due to demographic trends, economic growth patterns, state business climates, flows of foreign investment and, finally and most surprisingly, a shift of educated workers and immigrants to an archipelago of fast-growing urban centers.

“The South still attracts the most domestic migrants of any U.S. region. Last year, it boasted six of the top eight states in terms of net domestic migration — Texas, Florida, North Carolina, Tennessee, South Carolina and Georgia… The top four losers were deep blue New York, Illinois, New Jersey and California.”

“Perhaps more importantly, these states are nurturing families, in contrast to the Great Lakes states, the Northeast and California.”

“Why are people moving to what the media tends to see as a backwater? In part, it’s because economic growth in the South has outpaced the rest of the country for a generation and the area now constitutes by far the largest economic region in the country… Indeed this year the four best states for business, according to CEO Magazine, were Texas, Florida, North Carolina and Tennessee. They are also much less unionized, an important factor for foreign and expanding domestic firms.”

“In the long run some critics suggest that the region’s historically lower education levels ensure that it will remain second-rate… Yet the education gap is shrinking, particularly in the South’s growing metropolitan areas.”

“Perhaps more revealing, an analysis by Praxis Strategy Group suggest a good portion of these new educated residents are coming from places such as greater New York, Boston, Chicago and Los Angeles. The South’s new breed of carpetbaggers increasingly bring diplomas, skills and high wage jobs with them. The main attraction: not only jobs, but lower housing prices, lower taxes and, overall, a more affordable quality of life.”

“Rather than fade way, expect Southern influence instead to grow over time. It is more likely that the culture of the increasingly child-free northern tier and the slow-growth coasts will, to evoke the past, be the ones gone with the wind.”How The South Will Rise To Power Again http://fb.me/2cwctaDNuNew GeographyFrom the Washington Free Beacon, with videos of each of the worst moments from Chuck Hagel’s confirmation hearing:
1.   Hagel can’t answer yes or no on whether the Iraq surge worked
2.   Cruz roasts Hagel over agreeing that America is ‘world’s bully’
3.   Inhofe asks Hagel, Why has Iran endorsed you?
4.   Hagel says he supports the president’s ‘strong position on containment’…
5.   …and walks it back four minutes later
6.   Hagel calls Iran’s government ‘elected, legitimate’…
7.   …and walks it back
Hagel's 7 Worst Moments in Round One http://wfb.tc/11kUL0nWash. Free BeaconWall Street Journal Review & Outlook shares the perspective that Hagel will be a novice at a dangerous time.

“The biggest question hanging over Chuck Hagel's nomination to lead the Pentagon is whether he has the conviction and knowledge to protect U.S. security amid growing world turmoil and with a White House bent on cutting U.S. defenses. His confirmation hearing on Thursday was hardly reassuring.”

“The showdown over Iran's nuclear program will probably come to a head in the next four years, yet Mr. Hagel tiptoed around the issue, promising only that 'all options must be on the table.' He did not sound like a Defense Secretary who would offer advice on the use of force that he knew Valerie Jarrett might not like.”

“Mr. Hagel would be the first Pentagon chief who has endorsed the campaign to draw down U.S. nuclear forces to zero. In the hearing, he denied he would support unilateral U.S. nuclear cuts, and he said ‘Congress has to be involved’ in any Administration efforts to negotiate reductions with Russia. Alas, no one pinned him down on whether being ‘involved’ includes the Senate ratifying a treaty.”

“Perhaps most dismaying is that Mr. Hagel didn't appear deeply read or knowledgable about the department he'll be running. This may be understandable because in the Senate he was never on the Armed Services Committee.”The Hagelian Method http://on.wsj.com/11bCcwpOpinion & CommentaryNate Silver blogs that his FiveThirtyEight model estimates that conservative Republican Steve King would run a net of six percentage points weaker than moderate Tom Latham for Tom Harkin’s open Senate seat in Iowa in 2014. In Georgia, the Republicans should be favored in 2014 because of the state’s partisan lean. In West Virginia, Silver believes the Republicans are favored to pick up John D. Rockefeller IV’s seat, because of the strength of Shelley Moore Capito as a candidate, as opposed to a challenger from the right.

“The model that FiveThirtyEight uses to forecast Senate races relies in part on evaluating candidates’ ideology as determined by DW-Nominate and other systems.

“DW-Nominate scores are on a scale that runs from negative 1 for an extremely liberal candidate to positive 1 for an extremely conservative one. A score of zero represents a candidate who is exactly in the middle of the ideological spectrum.

“What matters for the FiveThirtyEight model is not what the candidate’s ideology is in an absolute sense, but how it compares to the voters in his state.”[new article] High-Risk Primaries Could Cost Republicans in 2014 http://nyti.ms/W1broANate Silver