Saturday, January 21, 2012

Recommended Reading List for January 21, 2012


Why are Barack Obama's critics so smart?
Nile Gardiner - foreign affairs analyst and political commentator for The Telegraph – lists 5 reasons why President Obama's conservative critics are SIGNIFICANTLY SMARTER in their approach and thinking:
  • they have a far better understanding of the concerns of the American people and the mood of the country – polls show the majority of Americans believe the country is moving down the wrong track
  • they reject big government and the ludicrous idea that bureaucrats know best – recent polling shows the majority of Americans see big government as our biggest threat
  • they reject appeasement of America's enemies, support America's allies and don't believe in apologizing for their country – Obama's foreign policy has been a disaster & key allies have been "treated with indifference and at times hostility"
  • they believe that a presidency should behave with decorum, and show respect for opposing views – and they have been smart to criticize the arrogance of Obama's imperial presidency
  • they know a gaffe-prone, embarrassing administration when they see one
Steve McCann @ American Thinker asks if the American people are prepared to sit through another term of George H.W. Bush?

If we nominate another moderate like Romney under the false pretext of electability, conservatives like me will apathetically vote for him over Obama, "which will hurt the down ballot contests for the U.S. Senate, the House and state governorships."
Romney's strategy mirrors previous moderates: speak like a conservative, claim that only a moderate can get elected, divide the conservative vote, and overwhelm challengers in the media and with establishment money.

Romney has always "shown himself to be more than willing to compromise with the Left and the Democrats," but only a dramatic course reversal can save us from becoming Europe, and we need "a bold and decisive leader that could not only initiate change but be honest with the American people."

Unfortunately the Republican establishment treats this upcoming election "as if it were no different from any other during the past sixty years", concerned only about retaining power through the control of the purse strings, and willing to put off difficult decisions via compromise.


In the Washington Post, Charles Krauthammer argues that Republicans shouldn't be legitimizing Obama's desperate relection rhetoric, while turning a Democratic talking point into a central focus of the election.

Obama's reckless spending and bigger government led to the historic 2010 elections. This year, he can't run on stewardship or ideology so the new narrative will be fairness and inequality – which is an important issue, but not the cause of our current economic problems.

The Democrats will "make the election a referendum on which party really cares about you, which party will stand up to the greedy rich who have pillaged the 99 percent and robbed the middle class of hope." Republicans will be charged with serving as the defenders of the 1%.

"It's all rather uncomplicated, capturing nicely the Manichaean core of the Occupy movement — blame the rich, then soak them. But the real beauty of this strategy is its adaptability. While its first target was the do-nothing, protect-the-rich Congress, it is perfectly tailored to fit the liabilities of Republican front-runner Mitt Romney — plutocrat, capitalist, 1 percenter."

The class-envy strategy was not working until it was given new life by Gingrich and Perry in their assaults against Bain/Romney, which "instantly turns Obama's class-war campaign from partisan attack into universal complaint."
Ohio Representative Jim Jordan, chairman of the Republican Study Committee, writes that "our only choice is to continue providing Americans an unambiguous contrast between the liberal and conservative visions for our nation's future."


Despite the influx of conservative Republicans sent to Washington after the 2010 midterm elections to confront challenges, those issues have not been solved because the Senate and White House have avoided cooperation.

There are 3 important questions that must be answered clearly by conservative Republicans to voters:
1.  who supports government growth vs. private sector growth?
2.  who lives in a fairy tale world with no limits on spending and debt vs. the real world where families, businesses, and governments must seek to live within their means?
3.  who puts their faith in government mandates and venture socialism vs. liberty and free enterprise?
William McGurn @ Wall Street Journal writes that thanks to Obama's executive overreach, Americans take a renewed interest in our fundamental governing document.

It all started with the ObamaCare legislation, when words like cloture and filibuster returned to the everyday lexicon, and we all witnessed unusual procedural maneuvers to ram through the health-care bill.  "Since then, Mr. Obama's aggressive disregard for any constitutional limit on what he wants to do has come to define his approach across the board."

Obama has provoked the rise of the Tea Party and its priorities to make government smaller and limited by the Constitution.

"Ordinary Americans who never before heard of the Commerce Clause are perfectly capable of grasping the argument that if the federal government can require a citizen to buy a product in the market, there's nothing he can't be forced to do."

Tuesday, January 10, 2012

2012 Presidential Election Prediction – Republicans 282, Obama 256


Forty-three weeks from today, we will go to our voting precincts and select the next President of the United States. Over the course of these 43 weeks, we will be inundated with polls, talk shows, advertisements and the opinions of the professional pundits and new-media bloggers.

For a casual observer like me, with an engineering degree instead of a political science or law school sheepskin, the deluge of information can be simplified down to an easy, straightforward fact: the next President will need to collect 270 electoral votes to win.

In 2008, John McCain lost to Barack Obama by a margin of 173 to 365. McCain won 22 states, while Obama won 28, plus the District of Columbia (and one of Nebraska's five electors based on their proportional distribution system).

The census of 2010 changed the electoral vote allotment for 18 states, due to population growth in the South, coupled with reductions in the Northeast and upper Midwest. A starting point for a prediction of the 2012 election would be to assume that the eventual Republican nominee would win the same 22 states that McCain won in 2008, and Obama would win the rest, using the new electoral vote math in place after the census reallotment.







Unfortunately, this starting point prediction yields a second term for Obama, with a 359 to 179 electoral victory. Therefore, the Republican nominee needs to find at least 91 electoral votes that will flip from Obama to the GOP, without losing any of McCain's states from 2008, in order to win.

I have identified eight states, in order of increasing difficulty, which I think can flip from Democrat-to-Republican and send Obama to the unemployment line.

1. Nebraska – flip 1 electoral vote from Obama to Republican
Besides the six electoral votes that we picked up in census reallotment, this should be the easiest of the electoral votes to flip over to the GOP. In the last ten presidential elections, Nebraska awarded 49 out of a possible 50 electoral votes to the Republican candidate. In 2008, McCain beat Obama by 14.9% in Nebraska. Furthermore, in the 2010 midterm House elections, 67.5% of Nebraskans voted Republican, and all three districts were won by the GOP. The only states with a higher percentage of Republican voters in the 2010 midterm House elections were Wyoming and Alaska.

District
Name
Party
R
D
Other
1
Fortenberry, Jeff
R
116,871
47,106
0
2
Terry, Lee
R
93,840
60,486
0
3
Smith, Adrian
R
117,275
29,932
20,036
327,986
137,524
20,036
Table: Nebraska 2010 midterm results

2. Florida – flip 29 electoral votes from Obama to Republican
My home state has voted for the Democrat in three of the last ten elections – Jimmy Carter in 1976, Bill Clinton in 1996, and Obama in 2008. In all but one of those ten elections, Florida has also sided with the election winner (they incorrectly picked George H.W. Bush in 1992). It's very hard to see Obama losing in 2012 if he can win Florida's electoral votes again. Fortunately, Florida voted very strongly for Republicans in the 2010 midterm House elections, with over 3 million people voting for the GOP and only 1.8 million voting for Democrats, while winning 19 out of 25 districts. The actual Republican/Democrat preference would be skewed even further than above had anyone opposed Republican Mario Diaz-Balart in District 21. In 2008, Obama beat McCain by 2.8% in Florida, but there is reason for optimism.

District
Name
Party
R
D
Other
1
Miller, Jeff
R
170,821
0
42,705
2
Southerland, Steve
R
136,371
105,211
12,856
3
Brown, Corrine
D
50,932
94,744
4,625
4
Crenshaw, Ander
R
178,238
0
52,607
5
Nugent, Richard
R
208,815
100,858
0
6
Stearns, Cliff
R
179,349
0
71,632
7
Mica, John
R
185,470
83,206
0
8
Webster, Daniel
R
123,586
84,167
12,491
9
Bilirakis, Gus M.
R
165,433
66,158
0
10
Young, C.W. Bill
R
137,943
71,313
0
11
Castor, Kathy
D
61,817
91,328
0
12
Ross, Dennis
R
102,704
87,769
22,857
13
Buchanan, Vern
R
183,811
83,123
0
14
Mack, Connie
R
188,341
74,525
11,825
15
Posey, Bill
R
157,079
85,595
0
16
Rooney, Tom
R
162,285
80,327
151
17
Wilson, Frederica
D
0
106,361
17,009
18
Ros-Lehtinen, Ileana
R
102,360
46,235
0
19
Deutch, Ted
D
132,098
78,733
228
20
Wasserman Schultz, Debbie
D
63,845
100,787
2,938
21
Diaz-Balart, Mario (unopposed)
R
0
0
0
22
West, Allen
R
118,890
99,804
0
23
Hastings, Alcee L.
D
26,414
100,066
0
24
Adams, Sandy
R
146,129
98,787
115
25
Rivera, David
R
74,859
61,138
7,556
3,057,590
1,800,235
259,595
Table: Florida 2010 midterm results

3. Indiana – flip 11 electoral votes from Obama to Republican
For nine straight elections, from 1972 through 2004, Indiana picked the GOP presidential candidate over the Democrat. That streak was broken in 2008 when they chose Obama (Obama beat McCain by 1.0%). Based on the results of the 2010 midterm House elections, it appears that Indiana voters regret that decision, since six out of nine districts were won by Republicans, and the overall voting margin in the state was 55.6% to 38.9% in favor of the GOP.

District
Name
Party
R
D
Other
1
Visclosky, Peter
D
65,558
99,387
4,762
2
Donnelly, Joe
D
88,803
91,341
9,447
3
Stutzman, Marlin
R
116,140
61,267
7,642
4
Rokita, Todd
R
138,732
53,167
10,423
5
Burton, Dan
R
146,899
60,024
29,484
6
Pence, Mike
R
126,027
56,647
6,635
7
Carson, André
D
55,213
86,011
4,815
8
Bucshon, Larry
R
116,759
76,265
10,240
9
Young, Todd
R
118,040
95,353
12,139
972,171
679,462
95,587
Table: Indiana 2010 midterm results

4. Virginia – flip 13 electoral votes from Obama to Republican
Just like Indiana, Virginia also picked the GOP candidate over the Democrat from 1972 to 2004, before choosing Obama in the last cycle (Obama beat McCain by 6.3%). Also like Indiana, Virginians seemed to lament their change of heart in 2008, as Republicans defeated Democrats by a 54.2% to 41.6% margin in the 2010 midterm House elections, winning eight out of eleven districts.

District
Name
Party
R
D
Other
1
Wittman, Robert J.
R
135,564
73,824
2,848
2
Rigell, Scott
R
88,340
70,591
7,358
3
Scott, Robert C.
D
44,553
114,754
4,593
4
Forbes, J. Randy
R
123,659
74,298
432
5
Hurt, Robert
R
119,560
110,562
5,177
6
Goodlatte, Bob
R
127,487
0
39,667
7
Cantor, Eric
R
138,209
79,616
15,577
8
Moran, James
D
71,145
116,404
3,199
9
Griffith, Morgan
R
95,726
86,743
4,448
10
Wolf, Frank
R
131,116
72,604
4,836
11
Connolly, Gerald E. "Gerry"
D
110,739
111,720
4,492
1,186,098
911,116
92,627
Table: Virginia 2010 midterm results

5. Ohio – flip 18 electoral votes from Obama to Republican
Whoever has won Ohio's electoral votes in the last ten elections has won the presidency – six Republicans and four Democrats. In 2008, Obama beat McCain by 4.5% in Ohio. This year, because of the results of the referendum against the Obama administration two years ago, I believe that Ohio can flip to the GOP. That referendum in the 2010 midterm House elections yielded thirteen Republican representatives with 53.7% of the statewide total vote, compared to five Democrat representatives and only 42.1% of the total voters.

District
Name
Party
R
D
Other
1
Chabot, Steve
R
103,770
92,672
5,076
2
Schmidt, Jean
R
139,027
82,431
16,387
3
Turner, Michael
R
152,629
71,455
0
4
Jordan, Jim
R
146,029
50,533
7,708
5
Latta, Robert E.
R
140,703
54,919
11,831
6
Johnson, Bill
R
103,170
92,823
9,582
7
Austria, Steve
R
135,721
70,400
12,192
8
Boehner, John A.
R
142,731
65,883
8,822
9
Kaptur, Marcy
D
83,423
121,819
0
10
Kucinich, Dennis J.
D
83,809
101,343
5,874
11
Fudge, Marcia L.
D
28,754
139,693
0
12
Tiberi, Pat
R
150,163
110,307
8,710
13
Sutton, Betty
D
94,367
118,806
0
14
LaTourette, Steven C.
R
149,878
72,604
8,383
15
Stivers, Steve
R
119,471
91,077
10,048
16
Renacci, Jim
R
114,652
90,833
14,652
17
Ryan, Tim
D
57,352
102,758
30,556
18
Gibbs, Bob
R
107,426
80,756
11,266
2,053,075
1,611,112
161,087
Table: Ohio 2010 midterm results

6. North Carolina – flip 15 electoral votes from Obama to Republican
Although North Carolina had voted for the Republican presidential candidate in seven straight elections prior to 2008, they chose Obama and turned the state blue for the first time since Carter in 1976 (Obama beat McCain by 0.3%). Like Iowa, Republicans did not win a majority of North Carolina's House seats in the 2010 midterm elections (seven out of thirteen were won by Democrats), but the GOP did collect more votes in the state overall, by a 54.1% to 45.2% margin.

District
Name
Party
R
D
Other
1
Butterfield, G.K.
D
70,867
103,294
0
2
Ellmers, Renee
R
93,876
92,393
3,505
3
Jones, Walter B.
R
143,225
51,317
4,762
4
Price, David
D
116,448
155,384
0
5
Foxx, Virginia
R
140,525
72,762
0
6
Coble, Howard
R
156,252
51,507
0
7
McIntyre, Mike
D
98,328
113,957
0
8
Kissell, Larry
D
73,129
88,776
5,537
9
Myrick, Sue
R
158,790
71,450
0
10
McHenry, Patrick T.
R
130,813
52,972
0
11
Shuler, Heath
D
110,246
131,225
0
12
Watt, Mel
D
55,315
103,495
3,197
13
Miller, Brad
D
93,099
116,103
0
1,440,913
1,204,635
17,001
Table: North Carolina 2010 midterm results

7. Wisconsin – flip 10 electoral votes from Obama to Republican
Considering that the Democrat has won Wisconsin in the last six presidential elections, and only two Republicans have won this state in the previous ten contests (Richard Nixon in 1972, and Ronald Reagan in 1980 and 1984), it may be overly optimistic to think that Wisconsin will flip to the GOP. In 2008, Obama beat McCain by 13.9% in Wisconsin. However, in the 2010 midterm elections, Republicans won five out of eight House seats, and the overall statewide vote was 54.5% to 43.9% in favor of the GOP, so there may be reason to be hopeful.

District
Name
Party
R
D
Other
1
Ryan, Paul
R
179,819
79,363
4,445
2
Baldwin, Tammy
D
118,099
191,164
197
3
Kind, Ron
D
116,838
126,380
8,122
4
Moore, Gwen
D
61,543
143,559
3,001
5
Sensenbrenner, F. James
R
229,642
90,634
10,982
6
Petri, Thomas
R
183,271
75,926
170
7
Duffy, Sean P.
R
132,551
113,018
8,820
8
Ribble, Reid
R
143,998
118,646
294
1,165,761
938,690
36,031
Table: Wisconsin 2010 midterm results

8. Iowa – flip 6 electoral votes from Obama to Republican
From 1972-1984, Iowa voted for the Republican candidate in all four elections. Then, from 1988-2000, they voted for the Democrat. In the last two elections, they have flip-flopped to George W. Bush and then back to Obama as he beat McCain by 9.5%. Despite all of this indecisiveness, there is evidence that Iowa will flip back to the GOP in 2012; although Republicans only won two of Iowa's five House districts in 2010, 54.0% of the state voted for a Republican candidate but only 43.4% voted for a Democrat.

District
Name
Party
R
D
Other
1
Braley, Bruce L.
D
100,219
104,428
6,255
2
Loebsack, David
D
104,319
115,839
7,017
3
Boswell, Leonard
D
111,925
122,147
6,684
4
Latham, Tom
R
152,588
74,300
5,631
5
King, Steve
R
128,363
63,160
3,716
597,414
479,874
29,303
Table: Iowa 2010 midterm results

If the Republican nominee can flip these eight states, he will be the President-elect on November 7th, with a 282 to 256 electoral vote victory over Obama.

Potential risks for Republican nominee:
  • Missouri
    • 10 electoral votes
    • McCain won Missouri by 0.1% in 2008
    • Voted for Republican in seven of last ten elections, including last three contests
    • 20.6% Republican advantage in 2010 midterms
  • Montana
    • 3 electoral votes
    • McCain won Montana by 2.3% in 2008
    • Voted for Republican in nine of last ten elections
    • 26.6% Republican advantage in 2010 midterms
  • Georgia
    • 16 electoral votes
    • McCain won Georgia by 5.2% in 2008
    • Voted for Republican in seven of last ten elections, including last four contests
    • 23.8% Republican advantage in 2010 midterms

Opportunities for Republican nominee:
  • Colorado
    • 9 electoral votes
    • Obama won Colorado by 9.0% in 2008
    • Voted for Republican in eight of last ten elections
    • 4.6% Republican advantage in 2010 midterms
  • New Hampshire
    • 4 electoral votes
    • Obama won New Hampshire by 9.6% in 2008
    • Voted for Republican in six of last ten elections, but only one of the last five contests (Bush in 2000)
    • 6.6% Republican advantage in 2010 midterms