Storified by Brian Empric· Thu, Mar 21 2013 18:42:22
“Democrats are plotting an aggressive effort to defend their most imperiled House members in 2014. On Tuesday (3/5/13), the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee will unveil its incumbent-retention program, known as Frontline, which will include 26 incumbents from districts across the country.”
“President Barack Obama has promised to raise money for the House Democratic campaign arm, and party officials say some of that cash will be directed to the vulnerable members.”
“Democrats are starting the cycle facing stiff headwinds: Only four Republican incumbents are in seats that favor Democrats, while 15 Democrats are in seats that lean toward the GOP. And midterm elections typically favor the party that does not control the White House.”
“Republicans say the Frontline program rollout shows that Democrats are on defense at a relatively early point in the election cycle. The National Republican Congressional Committee is expected to unveil its incumbent-retention effort, known as the Patriot Program, later this year.”
“Democrats started the year talking about how they were going to win the majority, yet now, they are releasing a list of 26 vulnerable incumbents they are not even confident will win,” said Andrea Bozek (@AndreaBozek), an NRCC spokeswoman. “Doesn’t sound like Obama’s dream of Nancy Pelosi being speaker again is based in reality.”
“Of the 26 incumbents in Frontline, 13 are in districts that favor Republicans, and 17 won in 2012 by less than 5 percentage points. Twenty-five are among the 34 Democrats The Cook Political Report has projected as the most at risk of losing in 2014… The vast majority of those in Frontline — 19 — are freshmen, a group of less established members that is traditionally among the most vulnerable in any election year.”
“They decided that the conservative movement simply did not have what liberals did: An infrastructure to train and nurture the next generation of campaign operatives and develop cutting-edge techniques. So they decided to take a shot at filling the void, by developing a proposal for a suite of new outside groups that would mimic, and eventually outpace, Democratic efforts. ‘We are not going to start a single group that is going to solve all the problems,’ said Ruffini, a former eCampaign director for the Republican National Committee who is now president of the consulting firm Engage. ‘What it is going to involve is an ecosystem.’”
“But the Empower Action Group is just the first of four new organizations they hope to create. Another proposed effort, provisionally called The R&D Lab, would be a conservative response to the liberal Analyst Institute, which develops and tests new techniques for progressive voter contact and persuasion, all of which informed the Obama campaign in 2012…”
“The group also hopes to create a new organization provisionally called The Venture Fund, which is meant to repeat the success of the liberal New Media Ventures, a start-up incubator founded by the Democracy Alliance, a coalition of wealthy progressive benefactors…”
“The final effort envisioned by Ruffini and his colleagues would be a Club for Growth-style campaign fundraising organization, which would promise donations to Republican campaigns that adopt data-driven techniques…”
“It is still too soon to know if these efforts will grab hold among the Republican fundraising community. Other efforts are underway, both by the Republican National Committee and Charles and David Koch’s network of organizations, to assess the reasons for the 2012 defeat and proposed fixes. But the Ruffini effort does benefit from involving many of the young strategists who will likely be a part of any solution.”
“What, if anything, could a sports analytics conference teach a political junkie?
“Since President Obama's reelection, we've heard countless stories about the startup nature of his campaign, with its focus on digital, technology, and analytics to drive decisions about messaging and marketing.”
“Obama's embrace of analytics has caused a reckoning, particular for conservatives. It's not that other campaigns ignored data, but Chicago clearly made it a priority in a different way.”
“Data is an incredibly valuable resource for organizations, but you must be able to communicate its value to stakeholders making decisions -- whether that's in the pursuit of athletes or voters.”
“Each night in the final stretch of the race, Obama's analytics team ran 66,000 simulations through its computers to have a fresh perspective on the battleground states. That real-time data then drove decisions on how to spend money and make it count.”
“No political candidate in recent memory did a better job than Obama of using emotion to persuade voters -- and he did so while relying on team of self-described nerds in his Chicago headquarters. Whether optimizing emails, building polling models, developing a communications strategy, or creating a social-media army, analytics made the campaign better.
“There's nothing stopping any campaign or organization from embracing analytics. Sports teams that fail to do so risk losing; the same lesson applies in politics. As conservatives seek a comparative advantage, this is one approach worthy of closer examination.”
“One of the conclusions some of us have come to is that our problem is not just message or messenger, but our own detachment from the needs of struggling, working families and our lack of vision and policies that address them.”
“What do we need to do to reposition the party, connect with Americans, and to address what Peggy Noonan so astutely observed – that it’s not that ‘they’ don’t like us, but that ‘they’ don’t think we like them?”
“I tried to provide a vision for hard-working families I came across during my campaign. Middle America is hurting. But I didn’t always keep this in mind in a personal way. I remember being chastised by my staff when, during the second South Carolina debate, none of us expressed empathy toward the unemployed woman who asked us how we would address her health insurance needs. We talked policy, but we did we really care about her?
“I believe the conservative approach that focuses on family, community, the private sector and a limited role of government provides the better framework to develop policies that will address the realities of millions of struggling families. But we have to be much more intentional in applying them.”
“The way forward is getting back to our basic principles but applied to the challenges we face today. We must not be the party of plutocrats, country clubbers and corporate interests…”
“We must represent and create opportunity for all Americans… We must be the champions for working taxpayers and families…”
“We must continue to be proponents of fundamental human rights and human dignity by affirming the right to life for the unborn, disabled and aging as well as protecting freedom of conscience and religion and freedom of speech and association.
“We must be advocates for vulnerable, at-risk children by programs that strengthen marriage, fatherhood, vibrant supportive communities, quality health care and educational options.”
“We haven’t shown America that we have the tools to put the rungs back on the opportunity ladder – the ladder up – to achieve the American dream. That must change.
“I’m not convinced we can rely on the establishment of the Republican Party or today’s elected leaders in Congress to get us back. And it’s not about moving to the left; it’s about appealing to working Americans with a vision that represents opportunity and a better life and offering real solutions to their problems.”
“Today, just 35 percent of voters believe the economy is fair to middle-class Americans. Only 41 percent believe it is fair to those who are willing to work hard.”
“If a CEO gets a huge paycheck after his company received a government bailout, that's a problem. People who get rich through corporate welfare schemes are seen as suspect. On the other hand, 86 percent believe it's fair for people who create very successful companies to get very rich.
“In other words, it's not just the income; it's whether the reward matched the effort… The United States is supposed to be a land of opportunity, where everyone can pursue their dreams. Throughout our history, many have started with nothing and risen to the top. But those on top today are busy rewriting the rules to limit entry into their club.”
“Given a choice between a worker who gets more done and someone who has a higher level of education, only 9 percent think the person with the higher level of education should be paid more. Seventy-one percent place a higher value on the person who gets more done.”
“As the national GOP seeks to improve its dismal standing with Hispanic voters, the 65-year-old former oil man has some advice.
“’You just have to show up, all the time, everywhere,’ he said, during a recent barnstorm tour of his district, which sprawls across the southern half of this border state. ‘Most Republicans don't bother. I do. I bother.’”
“[H]e contends that changes in policy platforms aren't enough to reverse the party's decline among voters like those in his district. Republicans must spend time in Latino neighborhoods with the respectful attentiveness of a small-town mayor.”
“Mr. Pearce's success among voters here, even those who disagree with him, underscores the hope and the difficulty of the task. Mr. Pearce said he logged more than 90,000 road miles in his district last year, a travel regimen that often separates him from his wife for weeks.”
“Bald and bespectacled, he has won the southern half of New Mexico five times since 2002. In November, he nabbed around 42% of the Hispanic vote, or nearly twice what Mitt Romney received nationally, and better than Republican Susana Martinez's share when she won the New Mexico governor's race in 2010, according to various polls.”
“Mr. Pearce favors drug tests for welfare recipients. He opposed the Dream Act, which would have helped the children of illegal immigrants gain legal status. He voted against the fiscal-cliff budget deal and was one of just nine House Republicans to oppose the re-election of John Boehner as House speaker.
“The Boehner vote is one of several maverick positions that have made Mr. Pearce persona non grata among the GOP House leadership. As a result, Mr. Pearce complained, he has been kept out of GOP discussions about overhauling the immigration system, despite being the sole House Republican serving a district on the U.S.-Mexico border…”
“During last year's presidential campaign, Mr. Pearce lured Mr. Romney to Hobbs, where the GOP presidential nominee rolled out his energy plan last fall. But Mr. Pearce said he failed to persuade Mr. Romney ‘to get out and really mix it up in the Hispanic community.’
“Mr. Pearce said he kept telling Mr. Romney and his staff, ‘C'mon, man, get out there. Talk about it. Do it. But they never did.’”
“Rove, the former top political adviser to President George W. Bush, generated strong pushback from tea party groups earlier this year when he announced the formation of another offshoot, ‘Conservative Victory Project,’ dedicated to helping electable candidates sail through Republican primaries.”
“During the last cycle, American Crossroads and its non-profit arm, Crossroads GPS, spent more than $104 million on federal elections with a success rate of 1.3%, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. Regardless of its success rate in 2012, Crossroads played a major role in the election and in the 2010 mid-terms, when Republicans took back the House of Representatives.
“The letter, however, points to the multiple 2012 Senate races in which Crossroads spent money against the Democratic candidate, yet the Republican candidate failed to win…”
“Now, in an attempt to explain the astonishingly low return on the hundreds of millions of dollars investment in Crossroads, Karl Rove and others are attempting to blame conservatives and the tea party,” the letter read.
Storified by Brian Empric· Mon, Mar 18 2013 18:27:23
“There's an increasing sense in America now that the facades are intact but the machinery inside is broken.”
“The jobless rate, officially 7.7%, is almost twice that if you include those who have stopped looking, work part time, or are only ‘marginally attached’ to the workforce… Meanwhile, the president is stuck in his games and his history. He should have seen unemployment entering a crisis stage four years ago, and he did not. At that time I was certain he'd go for public-works projects, which could give training to the young and jobs to the experienced underemployed, would create jobs in the private sector and, in the end, yield up something needed—a bridge, a strengthened power grid. He instead gave his first term to health care. And now ObamaCare is being cited as a reason employers are laying people off and not hiring, according to a report from the Federal Reserve.”
“Right now his attention has turned to dinner with Republican senators and meetings with members of both parties on Capitol Hill. He is trying to show, after a hit in the polls, that he can reach out. He's trying to convince America he's capable of making a deal.
“The new engagement may work if in the past few days the president has changed his political style, approach and assumptions. But people don't usually change overnight…”
“It is interesting that almost at the same time as the dinner the president's people had once again begun warning of doom. A blast email from Organizing for Action, signed by Stephanie Cutter, used these words: ‘Devastating,’ ‘obstructionism,’ ‘destructive,’ ‘this is real’… Their whole approach is still stoke and scare—stoke resentment and scare the vulnerable into pressuring Republicans.”
“Barack Obama really is a study in contrasts, such as aloof and omnipresent. He's never fully present and he won't leave. He speaks constantly, endlessly, but always seems to be withholding his true thoughts and plans. He was the candidate of hope and change, of ‘Yes, we can,’ but the mood of his governance has been dire, full of warnings, threats, cliffs and ceilings, full of words like suffering and punishment and sacrifice.”
“Mr. Obama is making the same mistake he made four years ago. We are in a jobs crisis and he does not see it. He thinks he's in a wrestling match about taxing and spending, he thinks he's in a game with those dread Republicans. But the real question is whether the American people will be able to have jobs… He's missing the boat on the central crisis of his second term.”
“Thus, he invited a gang of Republican senators to din-dins at the swank (and legendary) Jefferson Hotel, one of the city’s more discreet (and expensive) gathering places… Indeed, the president picked up the tab, a gesture of generosity or, one might speculate, a tiny deposit on a big investment, the returns of which are already rolling in: the media extrapolation that the president is extending an olive branch to his adversaries in search of a solution.”
“Not to be cynical, but does anyone really suppose that a Republican representative or senator is going to go against the party because Obama gave him a call?”
“It was nothing but a PR move,” says one seasoned insider. “Obama wants to run against obstructionist Republicans. The fact of the matter is, unless something really bad happens, there’s no reason for [Republicans] at this point to cave on taxes. Why would [House Speaker] John Boehner ever cave on taxes at this point?”
“Bottom line — for once a term aptly applied rather than a cliché — the only long-term deficit reduction involves serious entitlement reform, which everyone knows and Democrats don’t want to do... Republicans simply are not going to budge on taxes without real entitlement reform.”
“Democrats will run against those terrible Republicans who refused to raise taxes. Republicans will run on the Democrats’ record of no-growth and out-of-control spending, assuming, that is, they can figure out how to effectively communicate the message that no-growth is connected to Obama policies.”
“Why do presidents get in trouble in their second terms? They think they have a mandate when they don’t. They believe they’re stronger politically than they really are. They’re convinced they can get away with things other presidents couldn’t. They think too highly of themselves personally and act accordingly.”
“Sign number one is the sequester. It’s given Obama numerous opportunities to overreach, and he seems determined to seize all of them… Obama himself led the fear-mongering… But after the House and Senate rejected his vague plan for more tax increases than spending cuts, the president faces the temptation to further overreach and make his worst-case scenario come alive—to vindicate his dire predictions.”
“OFA (Organizing for Action) is unprecedented. No previous president had such an organization or even considered having one. It’s a kind of private political pressure group. Had President George W. Bush set one up, the media would have pounced and demanded he jettison it. But Obama has gotten minimal pushback from the press.”
“OFA is an invitation to crony capitalism and scandal… In reality, it’s a subsidiary of the White House, answers to Obama, is run by his campaign aides, and is empowered by the campaign’s vast database of supporters and Obama followers on Twitter, almost 28 million strong.”
“Obama, from all appearances, isn’t worried about serious second-term difficulties. He’s more full of himself than usual. He’s made it clear he prefers hobnobbing with Hollywood celebrities to spending time with Washington’s political class. And he may be right in thinking his situation, postreelection, makes him immune to the woes of earlier presidents. But maybe not.
“It makes an enormous difference whether he stumbles badly over the next year. If the president is forced on the defensive, Democratic prospects for winning the House in 2014 will evaporate and Republican hopes of gaining the Senate will soar again. And Obama may realize he isn’t exempt from the normal workings of politics, as he once thought.”
“The big story of the moment is that President Obama has suddenly decided to talk with lesser political beings. The famously aloof President who began his second term as if the 2012 election campaign wasn't over is inviting Members of Congress, and even some of its evil Republicans, to lunch and dinner. The question is whether this is merely a tactical feint or if Mr. Obama really wants to accomplish something in the next two years and realizes he needs Republicans to do it.”
“Mr. Obama and his White House aides have made clear that their highest priority is to return Nancy Pelosi as House Speaker in 2015. He and 2012 campaign manager Jim Messina are already mobilizing donors toward that goal, and his inaugural address, State of the Union speech and budget proposals have framed the issues in a way that suggests his priority is a grand liberal finale in his last two years.
“The appearance of a new bipartisanship is perfectly consistent with such a partisan 2014 strategy. The more reasonable he appears today, the better positioned he might be to blame Republicans for failure next year. Independent voters love to see politicians working together, however haplessly, so Mr. Obama may figure he has nothing to lose by dropping his Democrats-only strategy for now. He can always sandbag the GOP again later. In particular, he'd love to carve out deals in the Senate that isolate House Republicans.”
“In my view, there’s little reason to believe that the president wants such a grand bargain—or at least that he wants it enough to jeopardize his second-term political strategy. That plan? To win back the House of Representatives for Democrats, with heavy Obama involvement, by portraying Republicans once again as extremists… Then, having secured control of Congress, the president can consolidate and build on his implementation of the progressive agenda he began in his first term and laid out in his second inaugural and most recent State of the Union Address.”
“By ‘reaching out’ to Republicans, he is attempting to position himself as the ‘reasonable’ party in Washington even if his big ask—additional revenues—is something Republicans already gave him as part of the fiscal cliff deal.”
“The president has shown little appetite for real entitlement reform over his first four years in office, aside from a tweak to the calculation of inflation on Social Security and whispers to John Boehner during the original debt ceiling talks…”
“If the White House is bragging about its unwillingness to concede on entitlement reform, the one thing that could conceivably allow Republicans to be part of a ‘grand bargain,’ how likely is it that the president is serious about getting a deal?”
“Thanks to the FOIA, the transparency issue will be widely discussed this week as journalists, non-profit advocates, academics and others celebrate Sunshine Week with speeches, news reports and features, forums, surveys and panel discussions across the country. The week is timed to coincide with the March 16 birthdate of First Amendment author James Madison, who was also the country's fourth president.”
“A recent study by the Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse at Syracuse University found a 28 percent increase in the number of FOIA suits filed during the last two years of Obama’s first term, compared to the last two years of President George W. Bush’s second term, from 562 to 720 cases.”
“[J]ournalists and activists will keep on fighting for more official transparency because, as the Project on Government Oversight’s Danielle Brian (@daniellebrian) told The Washington Examiner, ‘it is our job to push back and crack open those closed doors that hide corruption, mismanagement and other wrongdoing.’”
“She called transparency ‘the most powerful tool citizens have to ensure government is operating ethically and effectively. Although there are some things that should remain secret, the government tends to err on the side of over-classifying and hiding behind secrecy to keep nosy citizen activists and journalists out of its business …’”
“Those who make the rules should play by them. Especially a White House that lectures the rest of America about the importance of paying your ‘fair share’ of taxes.
“So we were struck by IRS reports that no fewer than 40 aides to President Obama still owe the federal government a combined $333,485 in back taxes… This year, some 312,000 of Uncle Sam’s own employees owe the IRS a whopping $3.52 billion.”
“For all its sermons on fairness, this administration has never seemed too bothered when its own people somehow forget to send the IRS the check they owe.”
Storified by Brian Empric· Sun, Mar 10 2013 12:16:24
“Implicit in the wide range of efforts on the left to get government to take over more of our decisions for us is the assumption that there is some superior class of people who are either wiser or nobler than the rest of us.
“Yes, we all make mistakes. But do governments not make bigger and more catastrophic mistakes?”
“One of the key differences between mistakes that we make in our own lives and mistakes made by governments is that bad consequences force us to correct our own mistakes.”
“Too many among today's intellectual elite see themselves as our shepherds and us as their sheep… Tragically, too many of us are apparently willing to be sheep, in exchange for being taken care of, being relieved of the burdens of adult responsibility and being supplied with ‘free’ stuff paid for by others.”
“It's no secret that President Obama and his glamorous wife Michelle have worked hand in glove with Hollywood's power structure for years — from the White House's unauthorized access of classified information for the makers of ‘Zero Dark Thirty,’ which was nominated for Best Picture, to the vast fundraisers President Obama holds in Beverly Hills.”
“… Hollywood these days is all about obtaining crony capitalist benefits from Obama's state. (Filmmaker Harvey) Weinstein even hired an Obama operative to drum up support for one of his movies to win the Best Picture award.”
“[A]longside the politicization of Hollywood, the Hollywoodization of politics is happening too… The Obama administration, unable to sell its socialist, statist ideas to the public, instead uses Hollywood's willing leftist filmmakers and actors to give its failures a patina of glamour and success.”
“It’s not beyond repair, advisers to both men maintain, but hardball politics have bred a share of hard feelings — leaving the two farther apart than any recent speaker or president in recent memory.”
“People close to the speaker say Boehner also thinks Obama is a nice guy — but the kind of nice guy addicted to the sound of his own voice, prone to long delivering pedantic ‘lectures,’ boasting about his superior political skills and fond of telling Boehner how to run his own political affairs.”
“The high point in the Obama-Boehner saga is easy to identify. After a shaky start — shortly after taking office, Obama rankled Boehner’s team by joking that the perma-tanned congressman was ‘a person of color’ — the pair agreed to negotiate a ‘grand bargain’ on deficits and entitlements following 18 holes of golf in June 2011… The low point is even easier to mark: It’s right now.
“Both men have all but ditched the idea of direct talks, after a revolt by conservatives against Boehner during December’s fiscal cliff talks. The speaker has declared that negotiations with the White House are pointless and Obama agrees, opting for a strategy of marshaling public opinion against the GOP in a series of campaign-style events.”
“Another Boehner pal is even blunter in bashing Obama, and it is clear that whatever goodwill once existed between the two men, it is rapidly disappearing… According to this GOP lawmaker, Boehner sees Obama as ‘absolutely unable to make a decision. ... He’s indecisive and doesn’t know how to lead.’”
“The goal is to flip the Republican-held House back to Democratic control, allowing Obama to push forward with a progressive agenda on gun control, immigration, climate change and the economy during his final two years in office, according to congressional Democrats, strategists and others familiar with Obama’s thinking.”
“Democrats would have to gain 17 House seats to win back the majority they lost in 2010, and their challenge involves developing a persuasive argument for why the party deserves another chance controlling both Congress and the presidency. In the last election, American voters reaffirmed the political status quo in Washington, choosing to retain a divided government.”
“Obama has committed to eight fundraisers for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee this year, compared with just two events in 2009. The Democrats lost the House the following year, and Obama’s legislative agenda has largely stalled since then.”
“In early January, (Rep. Steve) Israel (chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee) said, he met in Washington with Jim Messina, Obama’s reelection campaign manager and now head of Organizing for Action, also known as OFA. The subject was the 2014 midterms.”
“Two former Obama White House officials used the same word — ‘hubris’ — to describe what they viewed as the administration’s highly public and sometimes misleading turn against congressional Republicans in the days heading into the sequester.”
“Most (second-term presidents) have about two years to secure a domestic agenda before lame-duck status sets in. But Obama is laying out an argument for a new Congress that, if successful, could give him his last two years in office to cement his legacy.”
WSJ Review & Outlook notes that the White House was quick to push back against this report, “but that looks like an attempt at damage control after the Post blew the White House's cover… It's important to understand how extraordinary this is. Presidents typically try to secure major bipartisan deals in their fifth or sixth years, before their political capital ebbs… Bipartisan failure is their strategy.”
“[H]is campaign rhetoric undercuts his credibility with politicians of the opposite party and perhaps of his own.
“It's not that these people resent being criticized. They understand that that is part of the game… But the substance of the criticism suggests the president is not serious about public policy.”
“Demagoguery about preschool and corporate jets is not going to convince Republicans that Obama can be a reliable negotiating partner… Instead, it reinforces the evidence that he never will be.”
“No one can continue to assert that President Obama is simply incompetent. Yes, he is indeed that. Into his fifth year as president, America is worse under his command: Millions are still out of work — unemployment stands exactly where it was the day he took office; millions more are on food stamps; and despite his claim otherwise, the U.S. is less respected in the world than ever before.”
“There is little merit in arguments against spending cuts, and not a speck of support for the theory that America can tax itself out of its growing sinkhole. The federal government has simply grown too large, spends too much. We’re now borrowing 35 cents of every dollar we spend. Like any family faced with a shortfall of cash, the first — and, really, only — solution is to reduce spending. It’s not rocket science. And Americans are doing just that every day.”
“Rush Limbaugh has been saying for months that the president is not the least bit interested in the welfare of the country — instead, he wants to kill the Republican Party for good. And he’s right…”
“The last thing he cares about is the plight of American families. No, the president wants to gut the Republican Party so he can win back a majority in Congress in 2014 — and secure his legacy. And he’s fully prepared to spur chaos to get what he wants.”
“It is a clear change for a president who, during his first term, faced criticism from his left flank for being too conciliatory toward the GOP on healthcare reform and, later, during deficit battles. Liberal voices argued that Obama was mistaken in thinking the Republicans had any real interest in finding common ground.”
“Conservatives accuse Obama of being happier making airy claims and promises at campaign-style events than engaging in the nitty-gritty of governance. In particular, they suggest that his purported willingness to compromise to avert the sequester was vague at best and bogus at worst.”
“Of late, perhaps liberated by his relatively comfortable reelection win, Obama’s attitude is more akin to that of a general leading his forces into battle, confident that he can decimate the enemy.”
“Voices on the left have now, for the most part, fallen into contended silence. In their stead, Republicans are protesting about Obama’s supposed triumphalism.
“On the day after Obama’s second inaugural address, Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) told a meeting of the centrist Ripon Society that he believed the administration’s goal is to ‘annihilate the Republican Party.’”
“Tony Fratto (@TonyFratto), a former deputy press secretary for President George W. Bush, said that any evaluation of Obama’s second-term approach needs to acknowledge these nuances (with Obama’s strategy).
“I don’t think it’s some kind of second-term infusion of courage,” he said. “It’s very tactical in the way they deal with issues.”
