Storified by Brian Empric· Thu, Mar 21 2013 18:42:22
“Democrats are plotting an aggressive effort to defend their most imperiled House members in 2014. On Tuesday (3/5/13), the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee will unveil its incumbent-retention program, known as Frontline, which will include 26 incumbents from districts across the country.”
“President Barack Obama has promised to raise money for the House Democratic campaign arm, and party officials say some of that cash will be directed to the vulnerable members.”
“Democrats are starting the cycle facing stiff headwinds: Only four Republican incumbents are in seats that favor Democrats, while 15 Democrats are in seats that lean toward the GOP. And midterm elections typically favor the party that does not control the White House.”
“Republicans say the Frontline program rollout shows that Democrats are on defense at a relatively early point in the election cycle. The National Republican Congressional Committee is expected to unveil its incumbent-retention effort, known as the Patriot Program, later this year.”
“Democrats started the year talking about how they were going to win the majority, yet now, they are releasing a list of 26 vulnerable incumbents they are not even confident will win,” said Andrea Bozek (@AndreaBozek), an NRCC spokeswoman. “Doesn’t sound like Obama’s dream of Nancy Pelosi being speaker again is based in reality.”
“Of the 26 incumbents in Frontline, 13 are in districts that favor Republicans, and 17 won in 2012 by less than 5 percentage points. Twenty-five are among the 34 Democrats The Cook Political Report has projected as the most at risk of losing in 2014… The vast majority of those in Frontline — 19 — are freshmen, a group of less established members that is traditionally among the most vulnerable in any election year.”
“They decided that the conservative movement simply did not have what liberals did: An infrastructure to train and nurture the next generation of campaign operatives and develop cutting-edge techniques. So they decided to take a shot at filling the void, by developing a proposal for a suite of new outside groups that would mimic, and eventually outpace, Democratic efforts. ‘We are not going to start a single group that is going to solve all the problems,’ said Ruffini, a former eCampaign director for the Republican National Committee who is now president of the consulting firm Engage. ‘What it is going to involve is an ecosystem.’”
“But the Empower Action Group is just the first of four new organizations they hope to create. Another proposed effort, provisionally called The R&D Lab, would be a conservative response to the liberal Analyst Institute, which develops and tests new techniques for progressive voter contact and persuasion, all of which informed the Obama campaign in 2012…”
“The group also hopes to create a new organization provisionally called The Venture Fund, which is meant to repeat the success of the liberal New Media Ventures, a start-up incubator founded by the Democracy Alliance, a coalition of wealthy progressive benefactors…”
“The final effort envisioned by Ruffini and his colleagues would be a Club for Growth-style campaign fundraising organization, which would promise donations to Republican campaigns that adopt data-driven techniques…”
“It is still too soon to know if these efforts will grab hold among the Republican fundraising community. Other efforts are underway, both by the Republican National Committee and Charles and David Koch’s network of organizations, to assess the reasons for the 2012 defeat and proposed fixes. But the Ruffini effort does benefit from involving many of the young strategists who will likely be a part of any solution.”
“What, if anything, could a sports analytics conference teach a political junkie?
“Since President Obama's reelection, we've heard countless stories about the startup nature of his campaign, with its focus on digital, technology, and analytics to drive decisions about messaging and marketing.”
“Obama's embrace of analytics has caused a reckoning, particular for conservatives. It's not that other campaigns ignored data, but Chicago clearly made it a priority in a different way.”
“Data is an incredibly valuable resource for organizations, but you must be able to communicate its value to stakeholders making decisions -- whether that's in the pursuit of athletes or voters.”
“Each night in the final stretch of the race, Obama's analytics team ran 66,000 simulations through its computers to have a fresh perspective on the battleground states. That real-time data then drove decisions on how to spend money and make it count.”
“No political candidate in recent memory did a better job than Obama of using emotion to persuade voters -- and he did so while relying on team of self-described nerds in his Chicago headquarters. Whether optimizing emails, building polling models, developing a communications strategy, or creating a social-media army, analytics made the campaign better.
“There's nothing stopping any campaign or organization from embracing analytics. Sports teams that fail to do so risk losing; the same lesson applies in politics. As conservatives seek a comparative advantage, this is one approach worthy of closer examination.”
“One of the conclusions some of us have come to is that our problem is not just message or messenger, but our own detachment from the needs of struggling, working families and our lack of vision and policies that address them.”
“What do we need to do to reposition the party, connect with Americans, and to address what Peggy Noonan so astutely observed – that it’s not that ‘they’ don’t like us, but that ‘they’ don’t think we like them?”
“I tried to provide a vision for hard-working families I came across during my campaign. Middle America is hurting. But I didn’t always keep this in mind in a personal way. I remember being chastised by my staff when, during the second South Carolina debate, none of us expressed empathy toward the unemployed woman who asked us how we would address her health insurance needs. We talked policy, but we did we really care about her?
“I believe the conservative approach that focuses on family, community, the private sector and a limited role of government provides the better framework to develop policies that will address the realities of millions of struggling families. But we have to be much more intentional in applying them.”
“The way forward is getting back to our basic principles but applied to the challenges we face today. We must not be the party of plutocrats, country clubbers and corporate interests…”
“We must represent and create opportunity for all Americans… We must be the champions for working taxpayers and families…”
“We must continue to be proponents of fundamental human rights and human dignity by affirming the right to life for the unborn, disabled and aging as well as protecting freedom of conscience and religion and freedom of speech and association.
“We must be advocates for vulnerable, at-risk children by programs that strengthen marriage, fatherhood, vibrant supportive communities, quality health care and educational options.”
“We haven’t shown America that we have the tools to put the rungs back on the opportunity ladder – the ladder up – to achieve the American dream. That must change.
“I’m not convinced we can rely on the establishment of the Republican Party or today’s elected leaders in Congress to get us back. And it’s not about moving to the left; it’s about appealing to working Americans with a vision that represents opportunity and a better life and offering real solutions to their problems.”
“Today, just 35 percent of voters believe the economy is fair to middle-class Americans. Only 41 percent believe it is fair to those who are willing to work hard.”
“If a CEO gets a huge paycheck after his company received a government bailout, that's a problem. People who get rich through corporate welfare schemes are seen as suspect. On the other hand, 86 percent believe it's fair for people who create very successful companies to get very rich.
“In other words, it's not just the income; it's whether the reward matched the effort… The United States is supposed to be a land of opportunity, where everyone can pursue their dreams. Throughout our history, many have started with nothing and risen to the top. But those on top today are busy rewriting the rules to limit entry into their club.”
“Given a choice between a worker who gets more done and someone who has a higher level of education, only 9 percent think the person with the higher level of education should be paid more. Seventy-one percent place a higher value on the person who gets more done.”
“As the national GOP seeks to improve its dismal standing with Hispanic voters, the 65-year-old former oil man has some advice.
“’You just have to show up, all the time, everywhere,’ he said, during a recent barnstorm tour of his district, which sprawls across the southern half of this border state. ‘Most Republicans don't bother. I do. I bother.’”
“[H]e contends that changes in policy platforms aren't enough to reverse the party's decline among voters like those in his district. Republicans must spend time in Latino neighborhoods with the respectful attentiveness of a small-town mayor.”
“Mr. Pearce's success among voters here, even those who disagree with him, underscores the hope and the difficulty of the task. Mr. Pearce said he logged more than 90,000 road miles in his district last year, a travel regimen that often separates him from his wife for weeks.”
“Bald and bespectacled, he has won the southern half of New Mexico five times since 2002. In November, he nabbed around 42% of the Hispanic vote, or nearly twice what Mitt Romney received nationally, and better than Republican Susana Martinez's share when she won the New Mexico governor's race in 2010, according to various polls.”
“Mr. Pearce favors drug tests for welfare recipients. He opposed the Dream Act, which would have helped the children of illegal immigrants gain legal status. He voted against the fiscal-cliff budget deal and was one of just nine House Republicans to oppose the re-election of John Boehner as House speaker.
“The Boehner vote is one of several maverick positions that have made Mr. Pearce persona non grata among the GOP House leadership. As a result, Mr. Pearce complained, he has been kept out of GOP discussions about overhauling the immigration system, despite being the sole House Republican serving a district on the U.S.-Mexico border…”
“During last year's presidential campaign, Mr. Pearce lured Mr. Romney to Hobbs, where the GOP presidential nominee rolled out his energy plan last fall. But Mr. Pearce said he failed to persuade Mr. Romney ‘to get out and really mix it up in the Hispanic community.’
“Mr. Pearce said he kept telling Mr. Romney and his staff, ‘C'mon, man, get out there. Talk about it. Do it. But they never did.’”
“Rove, the former top political adviser to President George W. Bush, generated strong pushback from tea party groups earlier this year when he announced the formation of another offshoot, ‘Conservative Victory Project,’ dedicated to helping electable candidates sail through Republican primaries.”
“During the last cycle, American Crossroads and its non-profit arm, Crossroads GPS, spent more than $104 million on federal elections with a success rate of 1.3%, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. Regardless of its success rate in 2012, Crossroads played a major role in the election and in the 2010 mid-terms, when Republicans took back the House of Representatives.
“The letter, however, points to the multiple 2012 Senate races in which Crossroads spent money against the Democratic candidate, yet the Republican candidate failed to win…”
“Now, in an attempt to explain the astonishingly low return on the hundreds of millions of dollars investment in Crossroads, Karl Rove and others are attempting to blame conservatives and the tea party,” the letter read.
Storified by Brian Empric· Mon, Mar 04 2013 11:10:44
“[T]here is a more general sense that Obama, sleeves rolled up and taking his case to the people, wants to avoid letting Republicans up off the mat.”
“Democratic strategist Jamal Simmons (@JamalSimmons) said that stump-style appearances are ‘what he’s best at. It’s why he got elected twice. It is his core strength. People voted for him because they wanted him to shake things up and go in a different direction and that’s exactly what he’s doing.’”
“Obama faces the dilemma that confronts all second-term presidents. He needs to accomplish as much as possible before lame-duck status kicks in — and postpone that day for as long as possible.”
“Obama’s current strategy might not only help him advance toward those goals; it could also assist Democrats in their battles to hold onto their Senate majority and even seize control of the House of Representatives in the 2014 midterm elections… There are no guarantees that the Democrats can buck precedent, which indicates that the party of a second-term president usually loses seats in midterm elections.”
“The risk of an endless campaign is neglecting the task of running government,” GOP strategist Ken Lundberg (@newscall) told The Hill. “All the affiliated rhetoric, brow-beating and posturing will produce very few tangible results because it alienates potential allies and energizes political adversaries.”
“There is another, simpler part of Obama’s current approach, however. The president sometimes has a thinly veiled impatience with the ways of Washington in general and the idiosyncrasies of Congress in particular. Supporters and independent observers note that, temperamentally, he is more suited to the stump than to legislative sausage-making.”
“In private meetings and phone calls, Mr. Obama’s aides have made clear that the new organization will rely heavily on a small number of deep-pocketed donors, not unlike the ‘super PACs’ whose influence on political campaigns Mr. Obama once deplored.
“At least half of the group’s budget will come from a select group of donors who will each contribute or raise $500,000 or more, according to donors and strategists involved in the effort.”
“[I]t is not bound by federal contribution limits, laws that bar White House officials from soliciting contributions, or the stringent reporting requirements for campaigns.”
“The money will pay for salaries, rent and advertising, and will also be used to maintain the expensive voter database and technological infrastructure that knits together Mr. Obama’s 2 million volunteers, 17 million e-mail subscribers and 22 million Twitter followers.”
“Next month, Organizing for Action will hold a ‘founders summit’ at a hotel near the White House, where donors paying $50,000 each will mingle with Mr. Obama’s former campaign manager, Jim Messina, and Mr. [Jon] Carson [OFA’s new executive director], who previohttp://storify.com/brian_empric/monday-s-menagerie-3-4-13/editusly led the White House Office of Public Engagement.
“Giving or raising $500,000 or more puts donors on a national advisory board for Mr. Obama’s group and the privilege of attending quarterly meetings with the president, along with other meetings at the White House. Moreover, the new cash demands on Mr. Obama’s top donors and bundlers come as many of them are angling for appointments to administration jobs or ambassadorships.”
“Organizing for Action appears to be an extension of the administration, stocked with alumni of Mr. Obama’s White House and campaign teams and devoted solely to the president’s second-term agenda.”
“Organizing for Action said it would accept unlimited personal and corporate contributions, but no money from political action committees, lobbyists or foreign citizens. Officials said they would focus — for now — on grass-roots organizing, amplified by Internet advertising…”
“After his electoral wipeout in November — and motivated by years of resentment that’s spilling over — Rove’s credibility within his own party is at an all-time low.”
“He’s been re-signed by Fox, which guarantees him a powerful bully pulpit going forward. But, while it might be a stretch to say he’s gone from guru to goat, he will have to spend months making a case to skeptical donors, several Republican fundraisers conceded.”
“’He’s got a donor backlash and he’s got an activists backlash,’ said one prominent Republican donor. Several people who cut big checks to Crossroads feel burned, this person said, adding some believe Rove is letting his group off too easy with his insistence that the problem last year was bad candidates.”
“A few rich Republicans have flatly rejected solicitations from Rove since Election Day, according to a GOP strategist who works with donors.”
“Nobody played more ironclad hardball than Karl for a long, long time,” said one operative. “When you don’t have all the power or cards, don’t be surprised [that] when you make mistakes … that long knives come out.”
“In the states, Republicans are governing successfully. At the think tanks, conservatives are arguing intelligently. Around the country, activists are organizing energetically. All well and good. And important. But not enough.”
“If Republicans in Congress lack the nerve to stand up to President Obama, or the moxie to do so effectively, all other admirable efforts could end up being for naught. The federal nanny state could be so expanded, its tentacles could become so much more deeply embedded in the fabric of American life, that it would prove almost impossible for the next administration, however well-intentioned, to extricate us from it…”
“It may be that resistance is less edifying than reform. It’s perhaps true that resistance is less intellectually stimulating than devising remedies. It could well be the case that resistance is less inspiring than reviving a party or rebuilding a movement. And there may well be occasions where emergencies and the national interest will call us to work with the president. But the chief duty for Republicans over the next four years will be resistance.”
“This is a moment, as we face Obama, to emphasize the superiority of conservatism’s facts even at the expense of the accusation of meanness. There will be time, in 2016, to leave the meanness behind. But fact-based resistance is needed now.”
“The British have known for centuries that it’s not enough to hope for happy and glorious days in the future. It’s also necessary, with God’s help, to act in the present to scatter our enemies and make them fall. It’s necessary to confound their politics and frustrate their knavish tricks.”
“I’m told we’re living in a Moderate Moment. After Mitt Romney lost the election, moderate Republicans started emerging from every corner of the country, from Northwest Washington, D.C. to Arlington, Virginia. It was time, they declared, for calm voices to prevail in the Republican Party. The Tea Party, the right-wing, the ‘Conservative Entertainment Complex’ — all this must be cast overboard for the GOP to win again.”
“Parker calls for a RINO uprising, a new faction on the right to counter the Tea Party. That’s all well and good. There are genuine differences of opinion on the right, and a little inward dialectic never hurt anyone… But how would her brand of Republicanism differ from the conservative base she derides?”
“Since the election, we’ve heard a lot of nebulous chatter from self-styled moderates about how the GOP must reach out to the middle class, appeal to Latino voters, change, modernize.
“But how exactly do we do that? So far the only concrete answer seems to be softening the conservative stance on immigration. But according to the Pew Hispanic Center, education, jobs and the economy, health care, and the deficit all rate as bigger concerns for Latinos than immigration. Well then, counter moderates, conservatives need to gear their message towards jobs instead of deficit reduction. But Romney talked about jobs constantly during the campaign (‘Mr. President, where are the jobs?’). And many conservatives believe job creation is directly linked to reducing the debt and regulatory burdens on small businesses. The two aren’t mutually exclusive.”
“Beyond that one line about policy, her column is little more than a train of supercilious advice about how to distinguish RINOs from righties. Righties are ‘the fringe.’ RINOs are ‘defiantly proud, aggressively centrist and unapologetically sane.’ Righties carry ‘gigantic photos of aborted fetuses to political conventions.’ RINOs are ‘too busy Being Normal to organize.’”
“Parker’s primary objection seems to be one of culture and temperament rather than substance. Those tri-cornered-hat-wearing Tea Partiers are embarrassing all the normal and well-bred people out there.
“This is the dichotomy established by many moderate Republicans: shrill, rigid, movement conservatives on one side and open-minded RINOs on the other.”
“In reality, the conservative movement consists of traditionalists, libertarians, and hawks; politicians, writers, scholars, and radio hosts; angry and wonky, loud and soft, following in the tradition of Burke and the politics of Reagan, but disagreeing vibrantly on both issues and techniques…”
“The RINO movement consists of…well, people who say they’re RINOs. They’re pro-library-voices and anti-tri-cornered hats and pro-middle-class. Beyond that it’s hard to tell. But the left seems to approve.”
“62% of the public says the GOP is out of touch with the American people, 56% think it is not open to change and 52% say the party is too extreme.”
“The Republican Party’s image has been hit hard over the past decade. In January, just 33% said they viewed the party favorably, among the lowest marks of the last 20 years. The GOP’s favorable rating has not been above 50% since shortly after George W. Bush’s reelection in 2004.”
“Republicans are more critical of their party than Democrats are of theirs on most issues. For example, 36% of Republicans say the GOP is out of touch with the American people. Just 23% of Democrats say their party is out of touch…”
“However, Republicans overwhelmingly credit their party for having strong principles; 85% say the GOP has strong principles while 13% say it does not. And 80% of Republicans say their party is looking out for the country’s long-term future.”
“Among Republicans themselves, 69% had a favorable impression (of the GOP), down from a recent high of 89% reported after the GOP convention.”
“The national party is leaderless and nearly issue-less, but besides that, is thriving and in fine fighting trim.
“It used to be that the Republicans were nasty people because they exploited ‘wedge issues,’ which was the pejorative way to describe issues that were popular with the public but made Democrats uncomfortable. The phrase has been long-ago retired. Even if it hadn’t been, it’s not clear what Republican issue it would apply to anymore.
“Once, taxes and national security were the party’s pillars, supplemented by domestic issues like welfare reform and crime and by symbolic issues like the Pledge of Allegiance and flag burning. Now, the pillars are in a state of despair.”
“The latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll has Democrats leading on the following issues: looking out for the middle class, Medicare, health care, reducing gun violence, Social Security, immigration, taxes and the economy. The good news for Republicans is that they lead on everything else. The bad news is that everything else is only spending, the deficit and national security.
“The problem with the deficit as an issue is that people care about economic growth more, and the problem with spending cuts is that people like them more in the abstract than in reality.”
“The House Republicans mainly have blocking power… Woe to the republic if they didn’t. But if you block things, you’re easily labeled an obstructionist and wouldn’t you know it, people don’t like obstructionists.
“Their only hope to deflect the nation a bit from its profligate budgetary path is confrontations coinciding with key fiscal inflection points…”
“Two hundred and thirty members of the House don’t have a chance against a president, let alone a celebrity. This won’t change anytime soon. It is way too early to have a presidential candidate or even a presidential field, so the party lacks a head and therefore a unified voice.”
Storified by Brian Empric· Sun, Feb 17 2013 17:26:09
Storified by Brian Empric· Thu, Feb 14 2013 16:46:32
